我国国际贸易结构变化对能源消费影响的敏感性分析

Sensitivity Analysis on Effect of International Trade Structure Changes on Energy Consumption in China

本文基于投入产出分析法中影响力系数的研究思想,提出了"能源消费影响力系数"的概念,运用1992年、1997年和2002年投入产出表中的数据,计算了各进出口部门净出口每增加一单位,通过投入产出的连锁反应最终导致我国能源消费总量的增加数量,得出了对我国能源消费具有重要影响的关键性的进出口部门,以及这些部门单位进出口额的变化对我国能源消费的影响程度。其中,在对能源强度的计算中,借鉴了投入产出混合价值模型(Input-output Model in Hybrid Units)的计算方法。

Based on the thought of influence coefficient of input-output analysis, this paper proposes the concept of ＂ energy consumption influence coefficient＂ , and uses the data of the input-output table in 1992, 1997 and 2002 to calculate the increase amount of China＇s total energy consumption caused by one unit increase of import-export volume. The result shows what are the key import and export sectors affecting China＇s energy consumption, and what effects did the change of the import and export volume of these sectors exert on China＇s energy consumption. The method of the input-output model in hybrid units is used to calculate the energy intensity.