多状态Markov模型在糖尿病足研究中的应用

The Application of Multi-state Markov Model on Diabetic-foot Study

目的通过建立多状态Markov模型,探讨糖尿病足各状态间转移的影响因素。方法回顾性调查98例出现糖尿病足状态转移的患者,建立多状态Markov模型,探讨影响因素。结果各因素对状态1-2的转移均无统计学意义,HDLC、本次足溃疡病程、足背动脉搏动、年龄4个因素对状态2-3的转移有统计学意义,表现为:HDLC越低、本次足溃疡病程越长、足背动脉搏动越弱、年龄越大发生状态2-3转移的风险越大。结论多状态Markov模型是探讨糖尿病足各状态间转移的影响因素的有效方法。

Objective To explore the influencing factors of stage transition of diabetic-foot by establishing the Multi-state Markov Model. Methods Retrospectively investigation was conducted among 98 patients with diabetic foot, and Multi-state Markov Model was established to explore influencing factors. Results All factors had no significant effect on the transition from stage 1 to stage 2. HDLC, disease course of diabetic-foot, pulse of dorsal artery of foot and age significantly influenced transition from stage 2 to stage 3, a lower HDLC,longer course of diabetic-foot , weaker pulse of dorsal artery of foot and older age were the main risk factors of the transition from stage 2 to stage 3. Conclusion Multi-state Markov Model was an suitable tool to explore influencing factors of stage transition of diabetic foot.