美国金融体系脆弱性的测度与分析

Measurement and Analysis on Fragility of U.S. Financial System

本文在金融脆弱性理论的基础上,运用因子分析法,构建了适合美国金融体系和次贷危机特点的金融脆弱性测度模型,认为美国金融体系脆弱性主要是由宏观经济与金融市场、国际收支、金融监控和银行安全这四个主因子决定的。通过研究得出如下结论:2000年以来美国金融体系脆弱性指数呈现先降后升的趋势,最低点出现在2002年,随后逐年攀升;2008-2009年是次贷危机集中爆发和蔓延的时期,美国金融体系的脆弱性仍有上行的趋势。

Based on the theory of financial fragility, this paper constructs a quantitative model of financial fragility of U. S. by using factor analysis method, which adapts to the feature of the financial system and subprime crisis. It is found that the fragiliW of U. S. financial system ascribes to four main factors - Macroeconomy ＆ Financial Market, Balance of Payment, Financial Supervision and Bank Security. Available data suggest the following findings. The financial fragiliW index of U. S. presented a decreasing tendency till 2002, after when it increased steadily. As the subprime crisis breaks out and spreads mainly during 2008 to 2009, the financial fragility will tend to increase.