武汉市销地批发市场蔬菜价格与交易量短期波动分析

Analysis on Short-term Fluctuation in Vegetable Price and Trading Volume of the Wholesale Market in Wuhan

探究蔬菜价格与交易量的波动规律对调控蔬菜生产与流通具有重要的理论与现实意义。选取3个代表性的蔬菜品种的日交易价格和交易量面板数据为研究对象,分析了3个蔬菜品种的价格和交易量波动的基本特征,并且采用"速度法"对其波动规律进行了系统地分析。结果表明,郊区蔬菜的供给正逐年减少,并在很大程度上影响了蔬菜价格和交易量的波动;外地蔬菜的交易量波动频繁,无明显周期性规律,且波幅也不稳定;外菜和郊菜的交替上市保证了市场的稳定。针对具体研究结果,分别从农户和政府的角度提出了相应的建议。

Research on the fluctuation of vegetable price and trading volume is very important in theory and practice. This study selected the price and volume data from three kinds of representative vegetable products to analyze their fluctuation by using ＂Speed method＂. The results indicated that the supply of vegetables from suburbs was decreasing year by year which affected the fluctuation of vegetable price and trading volume sharply. The trading volume of vegetables from other areas fluctuated frequently and erratically and the amplitude was not stable. Vegetable products supplied alternately from suburbs and other areas ensured the stability of the vegetable market. In the light of these conclusions, this paper gave some suggestions for both the government and the farmers.