河南省粮食生产的波动性分析

Analysis on Fluctuation of Grain Production in Henan Province

利用波动指数对河南省粮食生产的波动周期和波动幅度进行了综合分析。结果表明,1978～1997年间河南粮食生产波动性较强,表现为波动周期短、频率快、幅度大、指数高;1997年之后进入长周期波动态势;总体上与我国粮食生产波动特征一致,属于古典型波动。

In this paper fluctuant index was used to measure fluctuating cycle and range of grain production in Henan province. The results indicated that the grain production fluctuated strongly during 1978-1997. The cycle was short, the frequency was high, the range was long, and the index was high. After 1997 it showed a long cycle fluctuation. The characteristics of the fluctuation, which belonged to the classical mode, were generally consistent with those of our national grain production.