区域物流规模的改进灰色马尔可夫预测

Improved Grey Markov Prediction Model for Regional Logistics Scale

在分析灰色GM(1,1)方法、灰色马尔可夫方法的基础上,建立区域物流规模预测的改进灰色马尔可夫模型,以国家统计局公布的陕西省1997-2006年货物周转量的统计数据为依据,对其2007-2008年的物流规模进行预测。与灰色GM(1,1)方法、灰色马尔可夫方法的预测结果相比,改进灰色马尔可夫链模型对区域物流规模的预测更加有效。

An improved grey Markov prediction model for regional logistics scale was proposed based on analysis of the GM （1,1） method and the grey Markov method. The logistics scale data from 1997- 2006 of shaanxi province was used for predict the logistics scale in 2007-2010. The result showed that the improved grey Markov model is more effective than the GM （1,1） and the grey Markov method on the regional logistics scale.