拱坝变形监测中的逐步回归分析应用研究

Application Research on Stepwise Regression Analytical Technique in Arch Dam Deformation Monitoring

拟采用多元逐步回归分析的方法来模拟拱坝变形监测中变形发展趋势,从而分析评价拱坝变形性态是否符合及正常工作状态,为拱坝控制运用提供科学决策依据.文中讨论了多元逐步回归分析方法数学模型建立、求解,并采用工程实例来分析该方法的合理性.通过模型实例分析,用多元逐步回归分析的方法来模拟拱坝变形监测中变形发展趋势,所得的回归(拟合)曲线与实际测量所得曲线吻合较好,能有效的模拟拱坝变形规律,为拱坝运行管理提供科学依据.

The article plans to simulate the trend of deforming development in arch dam deforming monitoring with multiple stepwise regression analytical technique, accordingly, to analyze and evaluate whether the condition of arch dam keeps conformity with proper operation condition, in order to provide the scientific decision-making basis of arch dam control utilization. The building and solving of the mathematic model on multiple stepwise regression analytical technique is discussed in the article, and the rationality of this technique is also analyzed by using instant case. Based on the analysis of instant case model, the trend of deforming development in arch dam deforming monitoring with multiple stepwise regression analytical technique is simulated to find more comprehensive regression curves-fitting curves in fitting condition, resulting in the effective simulation of the deforming regularity of arch dam, which provides the scientific basis to the arch dam operation management.