工程项目投资风险概率分析

Risk probability analysis on project investment

利用风险概率分析方法,通过对净现值NPV的风险分析,研究了工程项目投资的风险及其度量问题,确定了计算风险当量系数和风险补偿率的函数,对工程项目投资方案进行分析评价,为决策者在风险情况下提供决策依据,并尽可能做出最佳选择。另外,由实例的分析与结果可见,当考虑风险因素时,决策结果与不考虑风险的决策结果可能有所不同,决策结果不仅有赖于项目的风险大小,而且与决策者对待风险的态度密切相关。

Using risk probability analysis method, by the risk analysis of net present value, the peper studied the issues of project investment, determined the factor of risk calculation and function of risk-equivalent rate, the investment program of projects are analysised and evaluated, thus providing for policy-makers take decision-making in the provision of risk-based and, if possible, to make the best choice, in addition, the example of analysis and results showing that when considering risk factors, the decision-making results maybe different, decision-making results depends not only on the risk of project, but also closely related to the attitude that decision makers towards.