气候变暖对甘肃省武威市主要病虫害发生趋势的影响

Influences of Climate Warming on Main Diseases and Insect Pests' Occurrence Trend in Wuwei City,Gansu Province

［目的］研究气候变暖对甘肃省武威市主要病虫害发生趋势的影响。［方法］以凉州区为例，分析了农作物主要病虫害小麦蚜虫、小麦条锈病、玉米棉铃虫等生消关键期（越冬期、发生发展期）历年热量和水分条件变化，以及各气象要素与病虫害发生之间的内在相互关系。［结果］在全球气候变暖背景下，凉州区气候变暖幅度亦逐年代加快，气温线性倾向值20世纪80年代以来达到0.535 ℃/10 a，异常暖年、暖年出现几率增大，冬季气温倾向值为0.583 ℃/10 a，明显高于其他季节 病虫害发生期间（3～9月）热量条件改善，≥5 ℃积温、≥10 ℃积温增加明显 降水总体呈增加趋势，春、夏季降水增加较快，但量级较小 受气候变化影响，暖冬有利于虫卵的安全越冬，越冬基数增加，翌年发生期提前，发生面积增大。生育期间热量增加、光照充足有利于小麦蚜虫、玉米红蜘蛛的发生发展，为害期延长，世代数增加，为害程度加重。降水增多虽不利于虫害的繁殖，但对小麦条锈病、赤霉病等的发展蔓延有利。［结论］对于有效指导病虫害预防、减轻农业污染、保护农业生态环境具有积极意义。

[ Objective ] The research aimed to study the influences of climate warming on main diseases and pests＇ occurrence trend in Wuwei City, Gansu Province. [ Method ] Taking the Liangzhou County for example, the record heat and water condition change were analyzed during the occurrence and disappear critical period（ wintering period and development period） of the crop main diseases and insect pests such as wheat aphid, wheat stripe rust, corn bollworm, and the internal relations between weather elements and diseases and insect pests. [ Result] The results showed that in the context of global warming, Liangzhou County warming rate quickened year by year and the linear tendency value of temperature was 0. 535 ℃/10 a since the 1980s. The occurrence probability of abnormal warming year, warming year increased. The winter linear tendency value of temperature was 0. 538 ℃/10 a, which higher than the other seasons. The heat conditions of diseases and insect pests occurrence period （March -September） improved, ≥5 ℃ accumulated temperature and ≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature increased significantly. The precipitation overall had the increased trend, and the rapidly increase season was in Spring and Summer, but the order of magnitude was smaller. The climate change indicated that warming winter could help pest and eggs safely pass winter, the base of passing winter increased, the occurrence period was earlier in the coming year, and tbe occurrence area increased. That the heat increased and the illumination was adequate during growth could help wheat aphid, corn red spider occurrence and development, extended the period of damage, increased the number of generations and the degree of damage. The increased precipitation was bad to the propagation of pests, but it was of help the spread and occurrence of wheat stripe rust and scabs. [ Conclusion ] The study had positive significance for effectively guiding the prevention of plant diseases and insect pests, alleviating agricultural pollution and protecting agricultural ecological environment.