康平县近50年热量资源趋势分析与农业可持续发展

Trend Analysis of Heat Resource in Recent 50 years of Kangping County and Agricultural Sustainable Development

[目的]研究康平县热量资源变化趋势,为农业可持续发展提供气候依据。[方法]应用最小二乘法进行线性拟合及Excel程序,分析热量资源趋势变化及差异。[结果]在近50年里,平均气温升高1.6℃,∑T≥0℃积温增加了315℃,∑T≥10℃积温增加了280℃。50年经历3个温度"拐点",从1989年后温度上升趋势明显。冬半年气温升高幅度较大,夏半年气温升高较缓。[结论]热量条件的改变,农业结构需要重新整合,"陈旧的农业气象指标"需要重新确认研究,才能适应农业的可持续发展。

[ Objective] To study the trend of Kangping County Change heat resources for sustainable agricultural development based on the provision of climate. [Method] The linear least squares fitting and Escel procedures, changes of heat resource trends and differences were analyzed. [ Result ] The average temperature raised 1. 6 ℃, ΣT ≥ 0 ℃ accumulated temperature increased 315 ℃, ΣT ≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature increased 280℃ in recent 50 years. Through the three ＂inflection point＂, temperature upward trend became significant from 1989. Temperature range was larger when in winter, more moderate in summer. [ Conclusion] The changes in heat conditions, required the new integration of the agricultural structure,＂the old agrometeorological indicators＂confirmed needing new research to adapt to the sustainable development of agriculture.