我国农业FDI与农产品国际贸易的动态关系研究

Research on Dynamic Relationship between Agricultural Foreign Direct Investment and International Trade of Agricultural Products

以1984～2006年的时间序列数据为基础，采用农产品出口（EX）、农产品进口（IM）、总贸易额（TEI）和外商直接投资（FDI）为变量，利用Eviews5.0软件，运用协整分析和VAR模型对农业FDI与农产品国际贸易额变量之间的动态关系进行实证分析，结果显示：农业FDI与我国农产品进出口增长存在长期的协整关系，但在短期内可能发生FDI对进口的替代而偏离长期均衡关系的现象。因此笔者针对农业FDI对农产品出口额具有促进作用，提出了完善市场体系和加强对外资企业的进口管理两项政策建议，以缓解我国农产品进口压力。

Took export and import of agricultural products, total trade and foreign direct investment as variables, and Eviews5. 0 was used to make an empirical analysis on dynamic relationship between agricultural foreign direct investment and international trade volume of agricultural products with the time series data from 1984 to 2006 by co-integration analysis and VAR model. The results showed that agricultural FDI had extended co - integration relationship with the growth of agricultural products import and export, but in the short time, it probably occurred that FDI had substituted for import and departure to the long-run equilibrium relationship. Finally, because agricultural FDI had promotion to the export amount of agricultural product, two policy suggestions were put forward on improved market system and strengthened the import management to foreign companies in order to alleviate the pressure in import of agricultural products.