关于东亚夏季风突变的机制研究

MECHANISM OF THE EAST-ASIA SUMMER MONSOON ABRUPT CHANGE

建立一个一维模型来模拟东亚季风,模型的中心是水汽平流反馈。通过分析发现,它允许两种稳定状态存在,分别是暖湿和少雨的东亚夏季风。这个模型可以用来证明冰川边界条件的改变会对季风系统产生重要影响。最为显著的结论是,随着控制系统热量平衡的某些特征量如行星反照率、CO2浓度等的变化,东亚夏季风模型会出现一些突变点。这个发现表明,由于人类活动的影响,如土地利用的改变、硫化物的扩散、温室气体浓度的增加等,都有可能对东亚夏季风系统造成很大的影响,甚至能引发突变。

A one-dimensional model with the moisture-advection feedback as its center is designed to simulate the East-Asia summer monsoon. The results show that the model allows the presence of two stable conditions, namely the warm-humid and less- precipitation East-Asia summer monsoons. This model can be employed to validate that the changes of glacier boundary condition can significantly affect monsoon system. The most remarkable conclusion is that some abrupt change points will occur in the model with the change of some characteristic quantities, such as the planetary albedo and the CO2 concentration, which are responsible for the heat balance of the system, which indicates that anthropogenie activity, such as land-use change, sulfide emission and GHG concentration increase, can notably impact East-Asia summer monsoon and even trigger abrupt change for it.