贸易开放、实际汇率与居民就业——来自中国制造业部门的经验证据

Trade Liberalization,Real Exchange Rate and Employment:the Empirical Evidence from China's Manufacturing Industry

基于贸易开放下劳动力市场动态均衡框架,通过引入外部冲击及不确定性,分析了实际汇率对就业的影响。研究表明:实际汇率通过出口价格、出口份额变动、进口成本等渠道对居民就业产生影响。以中国制造业部门为例,发现人民币实际升值将导致制造业就业的下降,而制造业出口份额及投资水平的提高会部分地抵消这一影响。鉴于贸易部门生产率的提高和资本流入可能引发人民币实际升值,进而影响国内居民就业,故须引起高度重视。

This paper analyzes the relationship between real exchange rate and employment under the labor market dynamic equilibrium framework. It shows that the change in real exchange rate have an important impact on employment through the export prices, export share and the cost of imports. Considering the uncertainties, the fluctuations in real exchange rate will also influence the employment through those channels, such as the expectation and the domestic investment. We examine the impact of real exchange rate on China＇s manufacturing sector, and find that RMB＇s appreciation will lead to a decline in manufacturing employment, while the increase of export share and investment will partially offset this effect. Considering the increase in trade sector＇s productivity and capital inflows, this change will lead to RMB real appreciation, therefore, we should pay more attention to this change.