江苏省独生子女生育意愿分析——基于江苏省群众生育意愿和生育行为调查

An Analysis on Childbearing Desire of Only-Child in Jiangsu Province

本文基于2006—2007年江苏省"生育意愿与生育行为研究调查"调查数据,对江苏省独生子女育龄妇女的理想子女数、理想子女性别结构和生育第一孩的理想年龄进行了定量描述和二分类多元逻辑斯蒂回归分析。结果表明:随着年龄组的减小,独生子女理想生育子女数逐渐减少,其中理想子女数为一孩的比例逐渐增加而理想子女数为二孩的比例逐渐减少,理想子女数为三孩及以上的情况几乎不存在;对理想子女性别无所谓的比例逐渐增加,理想子女性别为一男一女的比例逐渐减少,理想子女性别为一个女孩的比例高于理想性别为一个男孩的比例;生育第一孩的理想年龄在逐渐增加。受教育水平和生育经历等因素对独生子女理想子女数为二胎以及对生育的子女有明确性别期待具有显著影响。独生子女的生育意愿没有因为她们是独生子女而具有单一的模式,而是多样化的、因人而异,并受到各种因素的影响,当考虑她们的意愿和行为时应当充分认识到这一点,不应当把她们作为一个简单的整体来对待。

Analyse the childbearing desire of Only-child, which includes the ideal number of kids,the ideal sex composing of kids and the ideal age to have the first kid which based on the data from the Survey on Fertility Will and Behaviour in Jiangsu Province. The main findings are as follows： firstly,the ideal number of children is 1.4 on average, secondly,the ideal age to have the first kid is about 25 and lastly, both high education level and birth experience have significant impacts on the ideal sex composing. Only-child group do not have a single mode of the childbearing desire but various modes affected by lots of factors. When considering the childbearing desire and behaviour of Only-child, they should not be viewed as a simple group.