天津港北航道与主航道交汇水域通航风险评估

Appraisal Study on Navigation Risk at the Junction of North Channel and Main Channel of Tianjin Port

以连续72 h观测的天津港北航道与主航道交汇水域交通流量统计数据为样本,对交汇水域船舶到达规律进行研究.研究结果表明交汇水域船长大于180 m的船舶到达规律服从负二项分布.并在此基础上对船长大于180 m的船舶同时到达交汇水域的可能性进行研究,预计到2010年,2条船同时进入交汇水域的概率最大为6.2%,5条船同时进入交汇水域的概率最小为1.6%.

In order to research the characteristics of ships arriving at the junction of North Channel and Main Channel of Tianjin Port, the distribution regularity of arrival is given using maritime traffic engineering theory and mathematical statistic methods based on the statistics of 72 hours traffic flow. Then the navigation risk at the junction is evaluated. By the year 2010, for the ship whose length is over 180 m, the maximal probability that 2 ships arrive at the junction at the same time is 6. 2 %, and the minimal probability that 5 ships arrive at the junction at the same time is 1.6 %.