宁夏冬季两次寒潮天气成因及数值预报产品分析

Contrastive Analysis of Two Cold Wave Weather Processes in Winter of Ningxia

利用Micaps资料，应用天气学分析和诊断方法，对2008-2009年冬季宁夏两次寒潮天气过程从天气实况、环流背景、影响系统、天气成因等方面，结合冬季寒潮预报指标进行分析。结果表明，两次寒潮天气均是在前期地面增温或强烈增温的情况下，高空强冷平流南下入侵造成的。但两次过程冷空气爆发的形势、冷空气源地、潮前回暖、冷空气移动路径等不同，造成对宁夏地区的影响范围和程度也不同。并通过对数值预报产品的解释应用，得到了一些宁夏冬季寒潮预报的指标。

On the basis of Micaps data, weather actual value, the circulation background, effect systems, weather causes and so on, two cold wave weather process in winter of Ningxia in 2008 - 2009 were discussed by using the synoptic meteorology and diagnose analysis methods and forecast targets. The results showed that the cause of two cold wave in winter of Ningxia was invasioning cold advection under surface heating or intense heating during prior period. Based on explanation and application with numerical products, some instructive information about cold wave forecast in winter Ningxia was obtained.