广东省1949～2006年粮食生产的时序变化研究

Time-series analysis of grain production characteristics in Guangdong Province from 1949 to 2006

利用1949-2006年广东省粮食生产的长时间序列统计数据, 分析了全省50多年来粮食生产的变化趋势, 并从粮食单产与播种面积、作物种植结构、复种指数、农业技术及农业投资等方面剖析了全省粮食生产变化的主要机制。结果表明：建国以来, 随着人口增加和产业发展, 在耕地与粮食播种面积逐年减少的情况下, 广东省粮食总产量一直在波动中增长, 主要原因在于：（1）影响粮食生产的主要因子——粮食单产的提高使全省粮食总产保持稳步增长；（2）广东省粮食作物以稻谷为主, 其种植面积的波动不大, 且单产逐年增加；（3）在耕地面积减少的情况下, 提高复种指数可提高区域的粮食生产；（4）农业机械总动力、化肥和农药的施用等农业技术的提高及农业基本建设投资的增加很大程度上促进了粮食生产的良好发展。

Based on grain yield statistical data for 1949-2006 in Guangdong Province, total grain yield tendency and main mechanisms including per unit area grain yield, cultivation area, planting structure, multiple-crop index, agricultural technology and agricultural investment were analyzed. The results show that total grain yield for Guangdong Province increases fluctuatively with population growth and industrial development. Arable land area and grain-crop cultivation area have a decreasing trend since 1949. The reasons for the above trends are as follows： （1） the increase of the main affecting factor of production, per unit area grain yield, results in steady growth in total grain output; （2） cultivation area of rice, the main grain-crop, is not change greatly and the yield per unit area increases year-on-year; （3） improving multiple-crop index increases grain production even though arable land area decreases; （4） advancing agricultural technology such as pesticide and fertilizer application, improved farm mechanical power, and increased agricultural investment promote food production.