陕西省粮食安全时空变化及预测研究

Spatio-temporal analysis and prediction of grain security in Shaanxi Province

本文利用耕地压力指数模型定量测评陕西省及各县1949-2006年的粮食安全程度, 结合耕地压力动态度进一步分析区域的粮食安全变化速度, 在历史研究的基础上, 利用灰色系统模型对未来陕西省粮食安全走势做出预测。分析结果表明：1949-2006年, 陕西省的耕地压力指数呈下降趋势, 以人均粮食占有量400 kg的消费水平标准, 耕地压力指数从1949年的1.591降至2006年的1.298, 粮食安全问题趋于缓和；各县的耕地压力指数存在明显差异, 关中平原大部分地区偏小, 陕北黄土高原的榆林、延安地区和陕南秦巴山地的商洛地区偏大；各县的耕地压力指数变化率存在明显差异。陕西省粮食安全问题目前依然存在, 未来区域粮食安全问题应高度关注。

Using the cultivated land-pressure index model, the level of grain security in the counties of Shaanxi Province for the period 1949~2006 was quantitatively evaluated. Also, the rate of development and change of regional food security analyzed along with the dynamics of cultivated land-pressure. Based on the data, the future trend of food security in Shaanxi Province was forecasted by using the gray model. In 1949~2006, cultivated land-pressure index for Shaanxi Province decreases from 1.591 in 1949 to 1.298 in 2006. The assessment is based on per capita share of grain consumption level of 400 kg, which means that grain security tend is alleviate. There exists an obvious difference in cultivated land-pressure index among the counties, which is low for most regions of Guanzhong Plain, and high for Yulin and Yan＇an in the Loess Plateau region of northern Shaanxi and Shangluo （Qinling-Bashan Mountain region in southern Shaanxi）. Differences in cultivated land-pressure index rates among the counties are also significant. Currently, there still exist problems of grain security in Shaanxi Province. In the future, regional grain security should be given high priority.