中国人口老龄化与居民储蓄之间关系的实证分析——基于1979年—2007年的数据

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Savings and Population Aging in China——Based on the Data from 1979 to 2007

文章使用1979年—2007年中国居民人均储蓄、人均GDP、人口老少比和实际利率的数据,利用向量自回归模型(VAR),分析了人口老龄化对居民人均储蓄的影响效应,分析结果显示,在中国处于人口老龄化的初期阶段,中国居民的高储蓄是应对人口老龄化的理性选择。随着人口老龄化趋势的快速发展,中国将快速进入中度老龄化阶段,伴随着劳动力数量和比例的下降,居民人均储蓄将会呈现下降趋势。

Based on the data about savings, GDP, ratio of the aged to the youth and real interest rate, this study analyses the effect of population aging on savings by using the VAR model. The result indicates that high savings rate is a rational choice for Chinese residents in the beginning of population aging in China. As the rapid development of population aging, China will enter into the medium-degree aging stage with the decrease of the quantity of labor forces, and the savings in China will be in the declining trend.