摘要
为预报鄂尔多斯下一次动物鼠疫流行年份，（１）根据１９８７～１９９６年长爪沙鼠鼠疫动态资料，建立两个灰色新陈代谢预报模型ＧＭ（１，１）；（２）将该地区动物鼠疫动态和太阳黑子资料进行对比，发现在太阳黑子峰值或谷值的年份附近，沙鼠鼠疫可能流行。结论：２００５年左右。
n order to forecast the next epidemic year of animal plague in Erdos,(1)the two grey metabolism forecasting models GM(1,1)were established using the collected dynamic data of the gerbil (Meriones unguiculatus) plague in 1987-1996;(2)it showed that the gerbil plague mignt be epidemic nearby the sunspot's peak value year or valley to comare the dynamic of animal plague with sunspots.It is possible that the animal plague will be epidemic in this region in 2005 or so.
出处
《中国地方病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
1998年第4期223-225,共3页
Chinese Jouranl of Endemiology
基金
国家自然科学基金
