金融结构与经济增长：跨国数据协整分析

Financial Structure and Economic Growth:A Cross-Country Panel Cointegration Analysis

依据88个国家1990-2005年间的面板数据,运用面板单位根与面板协整分析方法分别对全体国家样本、发达国家样本以及发展中国家样本的金融结构(银行和股票市场)与经济增长的相关关系进行的实证分析表明,发达国家的银行和股票市场与经济增长有着显著相关关系,但对经济增长的影响系数非常小;发展中国家的银行和股票市场与经济增长有着显著的正相关关系,且银行发展对经济增长的影响作用要大于股票市场发展对经济增长的影响作用。这与中国正处于转型经济向成熟市场经济过渡的基本国情相吻合,即不能盲目实行赶超战略和模仿发达国家建设市场主导型金融结构,并对当前我国选择以银行为主导、股票市场发展为补充的金融结构提供了有力支持。

Based on 88 countries＇ panel data from 1990 to 2005,we analyze the correlations between the financial structure（bank and stock market）and economic growth in all the 88 countries,in developed countries,and developing countries respectively.By using the panel unit root test and panel cointegration,the empirical research shows that the positive correlations between the financial structure and economic growth in developed countries are significant,but the coefficients are small.The positive correlations between the financial structure and economic growth in developing countries are significant,and the banks play a more important role in economic development than the stock market does in developing countries.This paper＇s conclusions are consistent with China＇s basic situation,that is,for a transition economy to transform into a mature market economy,a bank-based and market-supplemented financial structure is a justified choice.