FDI对我国经常项目收支影响——基于1982—2006年数据的实证研究

The Impact of FDI on China's Current Account in the Balance of Payments:An Empirical Analysis from 1982 to 2006

在明确我国经常项目结构特征以及FDI对经常项目收支影响途径的基础上,就我国1982—2006年FDI对贸易收支和经常项目收支的影响进行的实证分析表明,FDI是经常项目收支波动的重要影响因素,能够解释经常项目收支波动的14%左右。同时,FDI对经常项目收支的影响是双重的:一方面,通过推动加工贸易等途径促进我国贸易顺差,从而增加经常项目收支盈余;另一方面,FDI的利润汇回使投资收益账户持续逆差,从而部分抵消了经常项目收支盈余。因此,在调整"双顺差"国际收支结构时,应充分考虑两个项目的内在关联,统筹考虑外资政策和外贸政策,从而保证经济发展的健康稳定和持续增长。

By examining the characteristics of China＇s current account structure and the channels that FDI may influence it,this paper presents a rigorous analysis of the impact of FDI on the changes of China＇s current account balance in the balance of payments.The results of variance decomposition analysis reveal that FDI is a significant contributing factor to the current account balance,which,from 1982 to 2006,constituted a fluctuation of approximately fourteen percent.In addition,FDI has conflicting influences on the current account balance.On one hand,FDI contributes to China＇s trade surplus by driving growth in manufacturing and related sectors,constituting an increase in current account balance and hence the balance of payments.On the other hand,remitted interests from FDI consequently result in continued deficits to investment income,which will partially offset the positive effects of trade balance at the same time.Hence,both aspects must be taken into consideration when making adjustments to the China＇s international balance of payments featuring the Twin Surpluses（surpluses in both current account and capital account）.Only through a holistic assessment of the interaction between two accounts and the interaction between foreign investment policy and foreign trade policy can the purpose of sustainable growth of economy be achieved.