不平衡场在甘肃平凉市强对流天气预报中的释用

Interpretation of Unbalanced Field in Forecast of Severe Convective Weather in Pingliang of Gansu Province

通过对平凉市强对流天气发生发展的高空环流形势进行合成分析,归纳出平凉市强对流天气的500 hPa典型场模型和环境场特征;利用T213数值预报格点资料对2008年6-9月逐日资料计算不平衡场,探讨了不平衡场与平凉市强对流天气的对应关系,通过实例分析和业务应用,该释用方法取得了较好的业务效果。

Based on the composite analysis of high - level circulation under the situation of severe convective weather in Pingliang of Gansu Province, the typical field model and environmental field feature at the level of 500 hPa in severe convective weather process were summarized. Meanwhile, the daily unbalanced fields from June to September in 2008 were caculated by using T213 mathematical forecast products, and the relationship between the unbalanced field and strong convective weather was discussed. It showed that dynamical interpretation technique has obviously increased the capability of objective forecast for severe convective weather events in actual operation application.