基于VEC模型的我国税收收入与GDP动态关系的实证研究：1990～2007

Empirical Study on China's Dynamic Relationship of Tax Revenue and GDP:1990～2007

利用我国1990—2007年的相关数据建立税收与GDP之间的向量误差修正模型，并利用脉冲响应函数分析它们之间的动态关系，结果表明，税收与GDP之间互为因果关系。首先，GDP会对税收的增长起到一个长期、稳定的正向拉动作用；其次，税收受外部条件的某一冲击后，会对此后5期的税收收入产生显著的正向促进作用，这充分体现了税收计划管理模式对我国税收收入所产生的深刻影响，即一期税收收入增加后，下一期税收计划往往会随之提高，继而引起以后多年的税收计划的增加；最后，当税收受某一外部条件的冲击后，会给GDP带来反向的冲击，在这一过程中存在明显的时滞和较长的持续效应。

Based on China＇ s relevant data during1985 - 2007, the vector error correction model between tax revenue and GDP was established, and their dynamic relationship was analyzed with impulse response function. The findings suggest that bidirectional causality exist between them. Firstly, GDP has long and significant impact on tax revenue secondly, a positive impulse was imposed on tax revenue, subsequent 5 periods present ascensive trend, but GDP has no remarkable changes in subsequent 2 periods, this phenomenon is probably owing to a long time lag from the change of tax revenue to GDP.