中国FDI宏观经济效应的一般均衡分析

General Balance Analysis on Macro-economic Efficiency of FDI in China

文章从WEF对美国、英国、俄罗斯、波兰和中国制度建设情况的系统评估及比较出发,说明转型国家FDI宏观经济传导机制的特殊性,进而建立中国有FDI流入IS/LM/BP模型的新框架。认为在受到各种制度约束的情况下,中国FDI流入的国民收入效应仍然是确定的;但是,与发达市场经济国家相比,FDI促进中国国民收入的提高相对较少。以此为基础,提出了在中长期内缓解中国国际收支双顺差的理论基础和政策方向。

This paper,starting from World Economic Forum's evaluation on USA,England,Russia,Poland and China,explains the particular characteristics of FDI's macro-economic conductive mechanism in transition countries,and establish a new framework of IS/LM/BP model with FDI's inflow in China.The author holds the idea that national income effect of FDI's inflow is positive,although there are some systematic constraints.Based on the analysis,the paper makes a suggestion of how to resolve the problem of China's double favorable balance of payment in a long period.