中国宏观经济好转的持续性分析

Analysis of China's Economic Recovery

2007年下半年,美国爆发次贷危机,随后演变成了金融危机、经济危机,对全球经济产生了巨大的冲击,对我国经济也产生了巨大的冲击。我国政府及时调整政策,沉着应对,目前,我国经济出现了好转。现在问题的关键是我国经济的好转是否能够持续?经济是否能一路坦途,自此进入新一轮经济周期的上升期?本文对此进行分析。全文分四个部分。第一部分,简要回顾了上一轮经济周期的上行期和下行期;第二部分,论证了中国经济明显好转;第三部分,从多个角度分析论证我国经济好转的持续性问题;第四部分,简要地阐述了对通货膨胀和通货紧缩的看法。

The global financial crisis and economic crisis triggered by American Sub -prime Loan Crisis in the second half of 2007 have had a great impact on global economy, including China＇s. Our government adjusted the policies timely and handled the crisis calmly. Now China＇s economy is showing signs of recovery. The key question is whether the recovery can he sustainable. This paper consists of four parts. The first part is the brief review of the previous cycle of economy. The second part is the analysis of China＇s economic recovery. The third part is the analysis of the consistency of economic recovery from various angles. The fourth part is my brief opinion of deflation and inflation.