全球衰退与中国经济前景

The Future of China's Economy in Global Recession

全球经济如能在2010年前回复到稳定增长的轨道,则中国经济完全可能在走出"一枝独秀"的发展态势;全球经济如在2010年乃至较长的一个时期都无法回到稳定发展的轨道,则中国经济有可能会面临"长期调整"的发展态势。2009年的中国经济将受到强劲的投资拉动,消费将逐渐回暖,出口下滑的趋势完全取决于全球主要经济体的衰退程度,产业结构将呈现较大幅度地调整,失业状况将进一步加剧,如果2009年中国的资本市场能够保持稳定,中国经济将有可能维持在6%-8%左右的水平发展。

If the global economy can go back to the steady growth track by 2010, China＇s economy is likely to go the development trend of ＂outshine＂ completely. Otherwise, Chinas economy may be facing a ＂long-term adjustment＂of the development trend. In 2009,Chinas economy will be a strong investment-led, consumption will gradually warmer, the downward trend in exports will depends on the recession of the world＇s major economy countries entirely, the industrial structure will be a relatively large adjustment,the unemployment situation will further aggravate,if Chinas capital market can to remain stable in 2009,the economy growth rate of Chinas economy will likely remain at the level of 6%-8%.