油田开发污染源危险度评价模型及实证研究

Modeling and Empirical Study on Appraisal of Hazard Degree of Pollution Origins in Oilfield Development

针对油田开发污染源存在危险度,提出一种将灰关联度分析与故障树分析相结合的危险度评价模型。该模型运用灰关联度分析方法进行事故模式的识别,并根据某一具体的故障树,分析和导出顶事件发生的各种故障模式的可能性大小。然后,选取大庆油田工程有限公司典型案例进行实证研究,结果表明该方法对油田开发污染源危险度评价具备可行性和操作性。

This paper puts forward a model for the appraisal of hazard degree of pollution origins in oilfield development which combines fault tree analysis and gray connection degree analysis. By using gray connection degree analysis method, it identifies the accident modes. Besides, it analyzes and derives the occurrence probability of various fault models of the top event according to a certain concrete fault tree. The paper makes an empirical study on the classical case of Daqing Oilfield Engineering Cooperation, which proves the feasibility of this method in appraisal of hazard degree of pollution origins in oilfield development.