群体性事件的演进机制与处置对策——以瓮安事件和德江事件为例

Analysis on Evolvement Mechanism and Resolution Strategies of Group Events:Based on the Cases of Weng'an Event and Dejiang Event

本文以瓮安事件和德江事件为例研究了群体性危机事件的研究机理,认为群体性危机事件都是结构性危机要素、突发性危机要素和过程性危机要素共同作用的结果,其中结构性危机要素和突发性危机要素是危机形成的必要而非充分条件,过程性要素是危机爆发的重要决定因素。危机预警主要就是对过程性危机要素的监控,舆情指标和聚集人数指标相结合的"双侦测"机制是对群体性事件进行预警的有效方法。噪音(谣言)管理与舆论引导机制、冲突谈判与利益协调机制和危机应对与领导问责机制是化解和防范群体性危机的重要途径。

Based on the Cases of Went＇an Event and Dejiang Event, the paper explores the evolvement mechanism of group events, and concludes that group events resulted from combined action of structural crisis factors, sudden crisis factors and evolving factors. Among them, structural crisis factors and sudden crisis factors constitute a necessary condition, but not a sufficient condition, while evolving factors play a decisive role in the explosion of crisis. The monitoring of the evolving factors is carried out by crisis forewarning mechanism, and an effective forewarning for group events can be achieved through a hi-detection mechanism, which combines public opinion index and people assembled index. Buzz （rumor） management and public opinion guiding mechanism, conflict negotiation and interest coordination mechanism together with crisis resolution and official imputation mechanism constitute the important approach to group events prevention and resolution.