基于改进贝叶斯模型的四川省主要河流水质评价

Water Quality Assessment of Main Rivers in Sichuan Based on Improved Bayes Model

提出了改进的地面水水质评价贝叶斯模型(Bayes),将抽样误差正态分布原理用于估计Bayes公式中的似然概率.改进的贝叶斯模型应用于四川省8条主要河流12个代表站点的多年水质监测数据的评价,并分别对1971-1988年和1990-2004年的四川省主要河流12个代表监测站点的水质评价结果进行分析.评价结果表明改进的贝叶斯模型较为全面、客观地反映了四川省主要河流的多年水质状况特征和污染状况,为河流水质评价提供了一条新途径.

The improved bayes model was proposed based on surface water quality assessment system. In the Bayes formula, the likelihood probability was calculated by sample error normal distribution principle. The Bayes model was applied to annual water quality assessment of 12 representative stations of 8 main rivers in Sichuan. After obtaining the results of river water quality in more than 30 years, the further analyses were performed for the durations of 1971-1988 and 1990-2004 respectively. The results show that the Bayes model reflects the true water status and pollution actuality of main rivers in Sichuan roundly and objectively, which provides a new approach to river water quality assessment.