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高油价和高对外依存度下中国经济增长的实证研究

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摘要 随着中国石油对外依存度的不断增加,面临高油价时代的到来,中国的经济将会受到怎样的影响?本文通过协整检验、误差修正模型(ECM)和格兰杰(Granger)因果检验考察了中国GDP、国际油价和中国石油对外依存度之间的长期和短期关系。模型证明,在考虑对外依存度的情况下,石油价格上升将会对中国经济产生更严重的影响。本文的政策含义是,我国要通过降低石油对外依存度以减小石油价格上升对中国经济的影响。
作者 沈燕波 李熠
出处 《中国物价》 2009年第7期9-11,15,共4页 China Price
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参考文献8

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二级参考文献18

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