保险业对经济增长影响的实证分析——基于修正的Solow模型

An exponential analysis of the insurance industry's impact on economic growth in China——Based on the modified Solow model

保险业对于经济增长和社会稳定的作用已得到广泛认同。本文通过估计若干衡量生产效率的指标,以检验财产保险和人身保险在中国经济增长中发挥的作用。文中选用1994年～2007年国内的14组数据来建立我国的经济增长模型,发现在控制了教育、贸易出口、财政支出和投资增长率等变量后,财产保险深度对经济增长具有显著的正面影响,而人身保险深度的影响却不显著。该实证分析结果还表明,与保险和银行的独立影响相比,保险深度和银行贷款占比对经济增长的联合影响更为显著。

The role of insurance industry in economic growth and social stability has been widely recognized. The paper intended to test the role of the property insurance and life insurance in China＇s economic growth through the estimated number of the indicators in measuring productivity. Using the data from 1994 to 2007 to establish China＇ s economic growth model, we found out that property insurance penetration is a relatively positive variable towards economic growth, but the impact of life insurance penetration is not significant, with the variables of education, export, government expenditure and the growth of investment remains unchanged. Our analysis also showed that the combined impact of insurance penetration and bank loan ratio was more notable on economic growth, compared with their individual impact.