基于分位数回归的中国居民收入和消费的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Chinese Residents' Income and Consumption Based on Quantile Regression

阐述制约中国内需不足的几个主要因素,利用描述性统计和非参数方法重点考察中国居民收入差距的现状及其对扩大内需的重要影响。同时利用分位数回归技术对中国城镇和农村按收入等级划分的居民消费状况进行实证分析,结果表明:居民收入差距的确是制约中国内需不足的重要因素,不同收入阶层其边际消费倾向大不相同,并估算出这种消费倾向的具体值。从收入差距的视角提出了提高中国国内居民消费水平以便扩大内需的政策建议。

In this paper, the authors first state several main influential factors for consumption. Descriptive statistical methods and nonparametric statistical methods are employed to investigate the current situation of income gap among Chinese residents and its important influence for prompting interior consumption. Then we use quantile regression technique to do empirical analysis for the consumption cases of Chinese urban and rural residents according to different quantiles of income. We find the income gap among residents is indeed an important factor for prompting interior consumption and obtain its effect for different quantiles of income. Finally, some policy suggestions for prompting consumption level of Chinese residents and increasing interior consumption are proposed from the point view of income gap.