摘要
利用中国1952-2005宏观经济数据,分别建立固定参数模型、时变参数模型估算教育投入对经济增长的弹性,估计结果表明:无论从静态还是动态角度看,教育投入对经济增长的影响是显著为正;平均而言,样本期内滞后两期教育投入每增长1%,可使当期的GDP大约增长0.1034%,但是教育投入弹性在样本期内随着中国经济体制、经济政策、教育体制、教育改革、教育政策以及国际经济环境的变化呈现较大的波动。
A new method named state space model based on time- varying parameter is adopted in this paper. Macro- economic data from 1952 to 2005 of China are used to estimate the contribution rate of education investment in the Economic Growth, from 1952 to 2005 the average elasticity of educational investment in the economic growth make up 10.34 percent, but fluctuate remarkably.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
2009年第7期72-78,共7页
Journal of Statistics and Information
关键词
教育投入
经济增长
时变参数
education investment
economic growth
time- varying parameter
