岩土工程中风险评估方法分析

Analysis for the risk assessment of Geotechnical engineering

不确定性在岩土工程具有普遍性,而风险定量计算是近年评估岩土工程不确定性的一种新技术,主要途径包括直接概率分析和决策树分析。在概率分析过程中,数据的输入往往需要依靠专家评估和工程判断。但工程中数据来源量及准确性通常比较随机,同时专家的经验来进行岩土工程评估也有不足之处,原因在于专家往往低估岩土工程不确定性而对自己的判断过于自信。本文基于直接计算理论及工程实例分析提出,在小样本情况下,评估中专家判断及选择需要占主要指导地位,而在工程数据来源量充足真实的情况下,应该主要依靠风险定量计算或可靠性概率计算来对岩土工程进行风险评估。

Uncertainty in geotechnical engineering is universal, and the quantitative calculation of the risk assessment in geotechnical engineering is a latest technology in recent years, which main approaches include direct probability analysis and decision-making tree analysis. In the former analysis, data input is often necessary to rely on experts to assess and judge the works. However, the volume of engineering data and the accuracy of the source are more random, while the experience of experts to carry out geotechnical engineering evaluation for their inadequacies because experts tend to underestimate the uncertainty in geotechnical engineering and to determine their own over-confidence. In this paper, a direct calculation based on theoretical analysis and engineering examples, in a small sample of cases, the evaluation and selection of experts to determine the need for the guiding role of the major accounting, and engineering data in a sufficient source of the real situation, we should mainly rely on quantitative calculation of the risk or reliability probability calculation to carry out risk assessment in geotechnical engineering.