中国粮食产量增长的潜力及实现机制分析

China's Grain Output Growth Potential Its Realization Mechanism

立足自身解决粮食问题是中国农业经济发展的战略目标,也是实现粮食安全的基础。本文基于动态和长期视角,从中国粮食产出的主要影响因素出发,讨论了耕地资源开发途径、粮食单产增长潜力及实现粮食增产机制等三个基本问题。研究结果表明:①城市建设用地刚性增长的态势难以改变,但只要消除制度障碍,彻底转移农村人口,并推动农村空闲宅基地的复耕,不仅能够节约农村建设用地,而且可以增加土地供给,使耕地"保有量"目标在长期中实现。②粮食单产的潜在增长空间较大,其基本途径是改造中低产田、提高科技贡献率和中低产农户的科学种粮水平。③粮食的实际产出是多种生产要素配置的结果,提高粮农收益是关键环节。实现粮食增产目标,需要改善粮食生产要素条件,完善粮食生产补贴制度,推动粮食生产规模经营。

Solving grain problem is the strategic objectives for China＇s agricultural economic development, and is also the basis of achieving grain security. From a dynamic and long-term perspective, based on the main influence factors of China＇ s grain output, the article discusses three basic questions of development means of arable land resources, growth potential of grain yield, and achieving grain increase mechanism. The study results show that： （1） The rigid growth of urban construction land is hard to change, but as long as the institutional barriers were eliminated, the rural population were transferred completely, impelling the rehabilitation of rural idle homestead, not only saving rural land for construction but also increase the supply of land through rehabilitation, so as achieve arable land ＂ownership＂ goal in the long term. （2） Improving grain yield of per unit area is a fundamental way, although there is a higher grain yield level of per unit area now. There is a larger space of potential increase in grain yield. The basic methods are improving low-yielding fields, and increasing the contribution rate of science and technology as well as the scientific level of growing grain of low-yielding farmers. （3） The actual output of grain is the configuration results of variety production factors. Raising income of farmers is the core element to enhance the quality of production and efficient use. To promote grain production, institutional innovation and more effective policy support to grain production are required, including： promoting the grain production, improving the subsidies system of grain production and promoting the scale operation of grain production.