芜湖稻区稻飞虱发生规律和预测技术

Srudies on the Occurence and Forecasting of Rice Planthoppers in Wuhu Area of Anhui Province

通过分析１９７６年以来稻飞虱的发生情况，明确芜湖稻区稻飞虱的发生规律和影响因素，用系统测报资料和有关气象材料做逐步回归统计分析，得到白背飞虱发生程度预测模型ｙ１＝１８５．４３＋１３．２７Ｘ１５－１．５５Ｘ１６＋０．５５Ｘ３０，历史符合率为９３．８％；主害代褐飞虱的发生程度预测模型ｙ２＝２４６．９７＋７９．５９Ｘ４－２．９４Ｘ６－１．３１Ｘ７，历史符合率为８８．２％。经１９９３～１９９５年预测检验，表明预测结果与发生实基本一致。

Information about occurrence of Planthoppers (Sogatella furcifera Horvath and Nilaparvata Lugens Stal)in Wuhn area from 1976 to present was analysed.The results showed the occurrence rule and offect factors,The incidenct model of Sogatella furcifera was developed according to correlation analysis between monitoring date and meteorological data:y 1=185.43+13.27X 15 -1.55X 16 +0.55X 30 and correlation rate with previous records was 93.8%.The incidence model of Nilaparvata Lugens was y 2=246.97+79.59X 4 -2.94X 6 -1.31X 7 and correlation rate with Previous records was 88.2%.The predicted results were compatible with the observation made in 1993～1995.