财政农业支出对农村产出与居民消费影响的SVAR分析

A SVAR Analysis in the Effect of Rural Fiscal Expenditure on Rural Output and Consumption

本文使用SVAR方法就农业财政政策对农村产出与居民消费的影响进行冲击响应、方差分解和弹性与乘数分析,同时考察财政农业支出的不同部分对农村产出与居民消费的不同影响。研究表明:①中国财政农业支出对农村产出和居民消费是挤入的,农业税收的影响与此相反,税收的挤出作用大于支出的挤入作用;②科技费、救济及其他费与基本建设费对农村产出与居民消费有较明显的长期效应,事业费对农村产出与居民消费的短期效应明显,长期效应较弱。

This paper uses SVAR to identify the effect of rural fiscal policy on rural output and consumption by impulse response, variance decomposition and elasticity analysis and studies on the effect of different components of rural fiscal expenditure on rural output and consumption. Our main conclusions are - （ I ） China＇s rural fiscal expenditure crowds in and rural tax crowds out rural output and consumption, the negative effect of rural tax is greater than the positive effect of rural expenditure. （ II ） Expenditure on science and technology development and infrastructure, and other expenditure has long run effect on rural output and consumption while administrative expenditure only has short run effect.