寇尔生育指数的改进及其应用分析——基于女性婚姻结构对生育水平的影响研究

The Impacts of Women Marriage Structure on Fertility Level,1982 to 2006

文章对寇尔生育指数进行了旨在消除年龄结构影响的改进,将改进的寇尔生育指数应用于1982～2006年女性婚姻结构对生育水平影响的分析中。结果表明,与原寇尔生育指数相比,改进的寇尔生育指数在计算时,需要更多数据,计算方法相对复杂,使其适用范围受到一定限制。但改进的寇尔生育指数因消除了年龄结构的影响,其分析结果更客观准确。因此,在使用寇尔生育指数分析中国人口数据时,因中国人口年龄结构的显著和迅速变动,应该而且必须对其进行改进。

Aimed at eliminating the effect of age structure, this paper revises Coale fertility index and applied the newone in the analysis on the effects of women marriage structure on the fertility level from 1982 to 2006. The study suggests that the applied scope of the ameliorated Coale fertility index has certain restrictions, because the new index’s numeration needs more data, and the method of calculating is relatively complicated. However,the results with the ameliorated index are more objective and accurate. This implies the necessity to improve the Coale fertility index when using it.