理解前苏联国家的经济增长——基于实证研究的讨论

Understanding the Economic Growth of the Post-Soviet Countries:A Discussion based on Empirical Study

前苏联国家的经济增长是源于丰裕的自然资源禀赋和有利的外部环境,还是归因于经济转型和制度构建所取得的积极进展?自然资源禀赋究竟是前苏联国家经济增长的"福音"还是"诅咒"?本文利用前苏联国家1994～2001年的数据对以上两个争论进行检验。研究表明:⑴前苏联国家的经济转型进展并不显著,其经济增长主要是由于有利的外部环境使其具有资源依赖型特征的产业结构重新焕发生机,与其经济转型关系不大。⑵虽然自然资源禀赋在短期内对前苏联国家的经济增长起到了积极的作用,但从长期来看,自然资源对制度质量和资本积累的负面影响要超过其直接的正向影响,因此,自然资源依然有可能成为前苏联国家经济增长的"诅咒"。

The economic growth of post-soviet countries were caused by their abundant natural resources and favorable external environment,or by the progress of their economic transformation and institutional building? Whether the endowment of natural resources was the 'blessing' or 'curse' for the post-soviet countryies' economic growth? In this paper,we test above two arguments by using the 1994～2001 data of post-soviet countries.The study shows that:first,the progress of post-soviet countries' economic transformation was not significant,and the economic growth had little to do with the economic transformation.Mainly,the economic growth of post-soviet countries was due to the favorable external environment,and it renewed the vigor of their resource-dependent industrial structures.Second,although the endowment of natural resources had played a positive roles to economic growth of post-soviet countries in short term,the negative impact of natural resources on institutional quality and capital accumulation would exceed its direct positive impact in the long term.Therefore,the natural resources still likely to become the 'curse' of post-soviet countries growth.