地方政府债务绩效考核指标体系构建及评价模型研究

A Study of the Evaluation Index System and the Appraisal Model for Debt Performance of Local Governments

公共产品理论认为,地方政府债务是一把"双刃剑"。一方面,对债务资金借、用、还各环节的合理把握,可以充分发挥债务资金作为扩张性财政政策的杠杆作用;另一方面,各环节或某个环节的失误极有可能导致地方经济进入恶性循环,严重者甚至危害地方经济和社会安全。本文基于投入产出理论和"4E"理论,对地方政府债务支出绩效及支出过程的内涵进行充分剖析,系统全面地选取绩效考核指标,结合因子分析法进行验证并最终建立指标体系;在此基础之上,运用主成分分析法,构建评价模型;在指标体系和评价模型的构建过程中引入实证分析,针对性地提出相应改进对策和建议。

The theory of public goods considers that the debt of the local government is a ＂double-edged sword.＂ On one hand, to handle reasonably the links of borrowing, using and returning of the debt capital can give the debt capital a full play as a leverage to the expansionary fiscal policy; on the other hand, every link or a mistake in any link may likely lead the local economy into a vicious circle, or more seriously, being harmful to the local economic and social security. Based on the input-output theory and the ＂4E＂ theory, this paper conducts a thorough analysis of the expenditure performance and the full connotation of the expenditure process of the local government debt. The index system is established by selecting comprehensively the performance evaluation indicators, combined with the factor analyzing method to verify these indicators. On this basis, the principal component analysis is used to construct the evaluation model. During the course of the construction of the index system and the evaluation model, an empirical analysis is introduced, so as to put forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the improvement.