从政治发展到政治转型——当代民主化进程研究的范式转移

From Political Development to Political Transformation:Paradigmatic Shift in the Studies of Modern Democratic Process

在当代民主化进程研究中,从政治发展到政治转型的范式转移趋势日益明显。由于政治发展范式在基本假设上存在先天性缺陷,对现实的解释能力与对未来的预测能力逐渐枯竭,导致了这一范式的衰落。政治转型理论因其在研究主题、理论假设、理论期待、理论资源、研究方法等方面比政治发展范式更具优势,逐步成为新主流范式。中国政治学在当代民主化进程的研究中要想在理论上取得新突破,在实践上产生新影响,必须积极面对这场新的范式转移,借鉴和吸收政治转型理论范式,实现民主化进程研究分析框架、研究方法与研究策略的总体性转变。

In the modern studies of democratization, a paradigmatic shift is becoming obvious, i.e., from the paradigm of political development to that of political transformation. Because the paradigm of political development starts with flawed presuppositions, its power of interpreting reality and predicting future is found increasingly inadequate. Hence it declined. The theory of political transformation supersedes that of political development in terms of research topic, theoretical hypothesis, theoretical expectancy, theoretical resources, methodology, etc., and has therefore become the mainstream paradigm. In order to achieve new theoretic breakthroughs and exert new influences on practice, Chinese political studies should go in line with the paradigmatic shift, absorb the theoretic cream of the paradigm of political transformation, and secure an overall change of analytical framework, research methodology and research strategy in the analysis of the democratic process in China.