社会消费品零售总额波动规律及影响因素分析

Analysis of Total Retail Amount of Commodities' Fluctuation and Influence Factor

根据实证分析结果,我国社会消费品零售总额明显呈现出"中间低迷、两头活跃"的季节性和"稳定持续发展"的趋势性,而且在5%的置信度下没有充足理由拒绝其符合随机游走的假说。在10%的置信度下,汇率、财政支出与消费额的月度波动存在单向的正向关系,影响滞后期分别是3个月和6个月。根据VAR模型的脉冲响应图和方差分解表,在消费额月度波动的预测误差中,滞后消费额月度波动、投资、储蓄、税收方程新息影响分别占比大体为60:21:6:12。据此,文章提出了扩大政府财政支出规模、保障币值稳定、降低居民储蓄等扩大居民消费的对策措施。

According to the result of empirical analysis, total retail amount of commodities appear distinct seasonal of ＂medial depressed, two port active＂ and static sustainable development trend. At the same, there is not enough evidence to reject null hypothesis of unit root process under 5% confidences. Exchange, finance expend have singular influence on monthly fluctuation of total social retail amount of commodities under 10% confidences, lag period of influence separate is three month and six month. Based on impulse responses graph and variance decomposition. In the predicted error of total social retail amount of commodities＇ monthly fluctuation, lagged consumption monthly fluctuation, Investment, save, tax separate contribution to 60：21：6：12. So in order to expand consumption, the measure should be taken to increase government finance expend, protect the static of monetary, decrease save amount.