基于曲线估计和GM(1,1)的粮食需-供模型与实证分析

The Model of Grain Demand-Supply Based on Population Curve Fit and GM(1,1) and Empirical Analysis

粮食需求-供给模型对于科学评价我国粮食需求-供给状况、制定合理的粮食安全战略具有重要意义.运用曲线估计和灰色数列GM(1,1)模型方法,构建我国粮食需求-供给模型,实证分析2020年前的粮食需求-供给状况,结果表明:2015年及以前的国内粮食产量与可供净进口粮食量总和小于国内粮食总需求,粮食需求-供给压力指数可能大于1,采取激励措施,提高国内粮食生产能力势在必行;随着可供净进口粮食量增加和激励效应发生作用,2016—2020年的粮食供给量将大于需求量,2016—2018年以后的粮食需求-供给压力指数可能小于1,国内粮食压力有可能得到根本性的缓解.

The grain demand-supply model is of great significance to analyze and estimate scientifically the grain demand-supply situation, and develop the food security strategy for China in future. The purpose of this study with Curve Estimation and gray series GM （1,1） is to build our country＇s food demand-supply model and understand the grain demand-supply situation before 2020. The population-time curve estimated model was established from 2009 to 2020, used SPSS16.0 software according to the population changes over time consecutive series between 1961 and 2005,The grey series GM （1,1） Model was established used DPS7.05 software to predict the number of grains from 1961 to 2005. The results show that the total grain both the domestic production and the available net imports from the international grain trade for China is less than the sum of domestic food demand. And the pressure index of the demand-supply may be greater than 1 before 2015. It is time to take the necessary measures to incentive the grain-producing. And it is imperative to increase the domestic food production capacity in order to satisfy the demand. With the increase of the net grain imports and the efficiency of the incentive effects of the grain-producing, the grain supply will be greater than the demand from 2016 to 2020. then the pressure index on the demand-supply may be less than 1 after 2016--2018, so the pressure on domestic food production and supply may be lower than before 2016.