冰冻圈变化及其影响研究——现状、趋势及关键问题

Cryospheric Changes and Their Impacts:Present,Trends and Key Issues

通过对冰冻圈研究在中国的重要作用和对冰冻圈科学在国内外研究现状的系统总结和分析,凝炼出了目前面临的关键科学问题及未来研究重点。总体来看,国际上更多关注冰冻圈变化对气候、海平面和环境的影响;而作为中、低纬度地区冰冻圈最发育的中国而言,冰冻圈变化对生态、水、环境及气候均具有重要影响。目前需要解决的关键科学问题为不同类型冰川对气候变化的响应机理及水资源影响评估的尺度转化机制、冻土与植被间水热传输过程的准确模拟、冰冻圈物理过程参数化及其与气候模式的耦合。为解决上述关键科学问题,需要开展以下研究:冰冻圈过程及其对气候变化的响应机理研究、冰冻圈变化的影响研究和冰冻圈变化的适应对策研究。

On the basis of analyses of the importance of cryospheric researches in China and the current status of eryospheric sciences over the world, this paper addresses some key issues and main contents that must be handled at present. Generally, the impacts of cryospheric changes on climate, sea level and physical environments receive worldwide concerns, whereas in China, cryospheric changes are of great importance in ecology, fresh water, physical environments and climate since China has a most developed cryosphere among countries in mid- and low-latitudes. The key issues that should be currently addressed are： i） fluctuation mechanisms of different types of glaciers in responses to climate changes and the scale-conversion in water resources assessments of glaciers; ii） modeling of water and heat exchanges between frozen soil and vegetation; iii） parameterization of physical processes in the cryosphere as well as their coupling with climate models. Towards full solution of these key issues, works in following three aspects should be highlighted, i.e. cyrospheric processes and their responses to climate changes, influences of cryospheric changes, and adaptation strategies for cryospheric changes.