北京市1996—2007年住宅空调致冷耗能影响因素分析

Influence Factor Analysis of Urban Residential Cooling Energy Consumption by Air Conditioners in Beijing During 1996-2007

采用气象资料和经济统计资料,以北京市为例,分析了城镇住宅空调致冷耗能的影响因素。结果显示:在一定建筑设计标准下,直接影响城镇住宅空调致冷耗能的因子主要有降温强度、城镇人口数、人均住宅建筑面积和城镇家庭空调器拥有比例。总的来说,由于目前中国城市化进程的加速,城镇人口、人均住宅建筑面积、城镇空调器拥有比例在不断增加,因此,无论气候变暖或变冷,各地空调致冷耗能不可避免地在增加。在上述因子中,气候是目前为止唯一可能起到降低能耗作用的因子。对于城市化较快的北京市,由于城镇家庭空调器拥有比例的快速增长,城镇家庭空调器拥有比例这一因子对空调致冷耗能增量的贡献率普遍最大。

Based on meteorological data and social-economic statistical data, influence factor analysis of urban residential cooling energy consumption in Beijing was performed. Some conclusions are drawn： under given architecture design standard, four factors, including cooling intensity, urban population, per capita urban housing area and air conditioner ratio, directly affect the urban residential cooling energy consumption by air conditioners. In general, the amount of cooling energy consumption tends to increase inevitably because the later three factors increase continuously. Among four factors, climate is the only one that can act to save energy sometimes. In Beijing, the speed of urbanization is large, the contribution of the air conditioner ratio to increase in cooling energy consumption ranks the first in most years.