利用F_(10.7)短期预报电离层F_0F_2

Short-term Forecasting of the Ionosphere f_0F_2 With F_(10.7)

通过对电离层历史数据和太阳射电流量F_(10.7)的回归分析,提出了一种单站电离层f_0F_2的短期预报方法,以F_(10.7)的流动平均值f_c为输入,以未来3天的f_0F_2为输出,分别利用中国地区8个台站的数据进行检验,分析不同太阳活动水平、季节以及地方时预报误差的分布特征。结果表明,该方法能有效地预测未来1～3天的f_0F_2。该方法还可应用于其他电离层参量的短期预报。

The critical frequency of the ionospheric F layer, f0F2, is of importance to shortwave propagation and ground-space communications. By using regression analysis of the f0F2 observational data and solar radio flux F10.7, a short-term predicting technique of the ionosphere f0F2 is introduced. The solar activity index fc, defined as the moving average of F10.7, is used as the input, and the output is the ionospheric critical frequency （f0F2） values three days in advance. Historical data from eight ionospheric stations around China is used to build the method and verify the performance respectively. The results are compared by giving their root-mean-square errors according to different solar activity, season and local time. The results show that the predicting errors at each season and local time are acceptable, which indicate that the method can forecast the f0F2 values effectively. The predicting errors at low latitude are higher than those at middle latitude, which conform the complexity variations of low latitude ionosphere. In addition, this method can also be applied to the short-term forecasting of other ionospheric parameters.