基于Logistic方程的多元回归径流预报模型及其应用

Multiple Regression Runoff Forecasting Model based on Logistic Equation and Its Application

以大伙房水库为研究对象,运用主成分分析法提取影响径流变化的综合因子,然后对综合因子进行Logistic方程拟合,最后利用多元线性回归方法建立水库中长期径流预报模型。结果表明,该模型具有较高的模拟精度。

This paper takes Dahuofang Reservoir as the research object. Firstly,it uses the principium of main component analysis method to extract the comprehensive factors affecting runoff change. Secondly, it simulates comprehensive factors by Logistic equation. And finally it sets up Dahuofang Reservoir mid-long term forecasting model by using multiple linear regression method. The results showed that this model has higher simulation accuracy.