我国对外贸易政策经济绩效的实证检验

Empirical Test on the Economic Performance of China Trade Policies

利用我国30年对外开放实践的有关时间序列数据,通过计量回归模型检验,发现传统贸易政策的贸易促进作用并不明显,而利用外资(FDI)却表现出极强的贸易与投资一体化态势。贸易政策作为产业政策的有机组成部分,正是通过推动体制变革和经济结构调整,来促进贸易与宏观经济协同增长。这也进一步佐证了经济结构演进对贸易政策的内生决定作用。

The empirical analysis demonstrates that in the course of thirty-year-opening up practices of China, the relationship between traditional trade policies and trade growth should be a kind of weak relevance, while FDI and international trade have a notable tendency of integration. There has been positive strong relationship between trade growth and economic growth because they are both based on the advancement of economic structure simultaneously. If the evolution of economic structure determines the selection of trade policy endogenously, the selection and implementation of trade policies should be endeavored to promote economic structure and by this way to maintain the rapid growth of economy.