服务贸易、货物贸易和劳动生产率变动:理论和实证——基于李嘉图连续统模型的贸易差额分析

Trade in Service,Trade in Goods and Change of Labor Productivity in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods

根据经验统计表明,服务贸易与货物贸易在差额变动和方向上存在替代性特征。文章以Dornbush等(1977)为基础考虑一个两国开放经济的李嘉图连续统模型,分析各国不同部门劳动生产率变化与服务成为贸易品两个因素对贸易形式和贸易差额变化的影响。研究表明在服务可贸易条件下,不同国家在服务部门和货物生产部门劳动生产率发生的相对差异变动,是导致各国货物或服务贸易差额关系变化的决定因素。而中国-OECD(1982-2004)的劳动生产率及贸易差额的数据检验,也较好地支持了此结论。

The analysis of trade payments in service and goods indicates that the balance of payment in service is a substitute for that in goods. Based on the model of Dombush （1977）, this paper discusses the effect of productivity growth on the balance and pattem of trade in a case of continuum of goods with tradable services. The paper argues that the diversity of productivity growth in different sectors plays the crucial role in the balance of trade in goods and service, which is also supported by the empirical analysis according to the data of China and OECD （1982-2004）.